Archive for US Economic Recession

BankCapitalProposalThe Obama administration on Thursday proposed stronger international standards for the capital reserves that banks are required to hold. The goal is to avoid a repeat of last year’s severe financial crisis.

The administration released a 14-page outline that would require higher capital cushions for firms deemed to be so large and interconnected they pose a threat to the overall stability of the financial system.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is slated to discuss the U.S. proposals during two days of meetings in London among the Group of 20 nations that begin Friday.

Under Geithner’s proposal, a comprehensive international agreement should be reached by the end of 2010 with countries agreeing to implement the measure by the end of 2012. The administration is hoping to get broad agreement among major countries on raising capital standards so that financial institutions in the United States wouldn’t be put at a disadvantage if capital standards in the U.S. are raised to higher levels than their competitors face in other nations.

Many experts believe the crisis occurred at least in part because current bank regulations don’t impose strict enough requirements for the reserves a bank must hold to cover potential loan losses.

“The global regulatory framework failed to prevent the buildup of risk in the financial system in the years leading up to the recent crisis,” the Treasury Department said in a statement issued Thursday. “… Going forward, global banking firms must be made subject to stronger regulatory capital and liquidity standards that are as uniform as possible across countries.”

Treasury said the new principles “should guide reform of the international regulatory capital and liquidity framework to better protect the safety and soundness of individual banking firms, and the stability of the global financial system and economy.”

Under the proposed policy, capital requirements for all banks and financial firms would be increased while those for firms deemed to be systemically risky would have higher required capital levels than the others.

Banks and financial firms would be subject to conservative, detailed standards for the amount of cash they are required to hold.

The rules for measuring risks in banks’ portfolios and the capital needed to protect against them would be improved.

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Two years after the start of the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s, policy-makers from around the world gather this week to think about how to prevent it from happening again.

The Kansas City Federal Reserve’s yearly conference at a mountain retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, will draw central bankers and top economists together at a time when the crisis appears to be easing, with the global economy on the mend.

The event will be a showcase for Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to reflect on the lessons learned and assess whether signs of recovery are lasting.

Bernanke, who speaks at 8 a.m. Mountain time (10:00 a.m. EDT) on Friday, may build on the Fed’s view that while the U.S. economy is regaining its balance after the deepest dive since the 1930s, any rebound will be slow and fraught with risks.

“Bernanke’s speech is the big deal,” said John Silvia, chief economist for Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina. “Is this thing really over? Is it three-quarters over?”

Questions about Bernanke’s reappointment to a second four-year term as chairman of the Fed — the U.S. central bank — will also hang over the event.

His current term expires on January 31 and President Barack Obama has yet to indicate whether Bernanke will be renominated. Analysts expect a decision by the end of October.

CRISIS EASING

A year ago in Jackson Hole, officials hunkered down for private behind-the-scenes crisis-management talks. At that time, financial stress was intensifying, although the most virulent phase of the crisis would not be triggered until a few weeks later when Lehman Brothers bank collapsed.

Now, with Germany, France and Japan having pulled out of recession and the United States appearing in better health as well, officials are breathing easier. Still, economies remain on life support, with full recovery not yet assured.

“I am not convinced that the recovery is sustainable yet,” European Central Bank governing council member Axel Weber told German weekly Die Zeit when asked about Germany’s economy.

Speaking a little more than a week after the Fed declared the U.S. economy to be leveling from a deep recession, Bernanke will likely take a stand-back approach in keeping with the academic nature of the conference and his professorial roots.

Bernanke, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and other central bankers could use the occasion to claim credit for emergency programs that have helped restore financial stability, and could point to much-settled-down indicators of risk in money markets as evidence of success.

“They can say, ‘We’ve taken a lot of actions; we have a lot of success,’” said BNP Paribas economist Julia Coronado in New York.

Even so, with pockets of risk remaining, such as the shaky U.S. commercial real estate market, policy-makers who failed to recognize the dangers of subprime mortgage exposures are likely to be cautious in declaring victory.

CENTRAL BANK EFFECTIVENESS

Participants at the conference, which runs into Saturday, will likely also debate how effective central banks can be in spotting asset bubbles, such as the run-up in U.S. housing prices that triggered the financial meltdown, and what tools they can use to prevent turmoil.

Bernanke will need to convey confidence in the Fed’s path toward economic recovery without raising expectations for an assured bounceback that could lead financial markets to anticipate a quick withdrawal of the central bank’s monetary support for the economy.

With hopes for a U.S. recovery pinned on reinvigorated auto sales and a long-awaited upturn in housing markets, analysts worry a rebound could die out in six months.

Even as he tamps down expectations about recovery, Bernanke will want to be emphatic that the Fed can pull back from the low interest rates and flood of cash it has pumped into the economy quickly enough when the time comes to avoid inflation.

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Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke declared Friday that the U.S. economy is on the verge of a long-awaited recovery after enduring a brutal recession and the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

Economic activity in both the U.S. and around the world appears to be “leveling out,” and “the prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good,” Bernanke said in a speech at an annual Fed conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo.

The upbeat assessment was consistent with the Fed’s observations earlier this month. The central bank has taken small steps toward pulling back some emergency programs to revive the economy.

Still, Bernanke stressed Friday that despite much progress in stabilizing financial markets and trying to bust through credit clogs, consumers and businesses are still having trouble getting loans. The situation is not back to normal, he said.

Restoring the free flow of credit is a critical component to a lasting recovery.

“Although we have avoided the worst, difficult challenges still lie ahead,” Bernanke told the gathering. “We must work together to build on the gains already made to secure a sustained economic recovery.”

Strains in financial markets worldwide persist. Financial institutions face “significant additional losses” on soured investments and many businesses and households are experiencing “considerable difficulty” in getting loans, he said.

Elsewhere at the conference, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet responded to a research paper on the origins and the nature of the financial crisis by saying he was a “little bit uneasy” about talk of a return to normalcy.

“We know that we have an enormous amount of work to do and we should be as active as possible,” Trichet said.

The remarks by Bernanke, Trichet and others come two years after the financial crisis broke out and nearly one year after it had deepened to the point of sending the nation into a near meltdown.

The bulk of Bernanke’s speech was a chronicle of the extraordinary events of the past year. Financial markets took a turn for the worst starting last September and into October, nearly shutting down the flow of credit. The crisis felled storied Wall Street firms and forced the government to take over mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as insurance titan American International Group Inc.

Despite efforts to save it, Lehman Brothers failed. It filed for bankruptcy on Sept. 15, the largest in corporate history, which roiled markets worldwide.

To prop up shaky banks, the government created a $700 billion bailout fund, a program that proved wildly unpopular with an American public suffering fallout from the recession.

The Fed swooped in with unprecedented emergency lending programs to fight the crisis. It eventually slashed a key bank lending rate to a record low near zero. And Congress enacted programs to stimulate the economy, the most recent coming in February with President Barack Obama’s $787 billion package of tax cuts and increased government spending.

“Without these speedy and forceful actions, last October’s panic would likely have continued to intensify, more major firms would have failed and the entire global financial system would have been at serious risk,” Bernanke said.

In recounting actions by the Fed and the government to battle the crisis, Bernanke didn’t acknowledge any missteps by the central bank and other regulators. Critics have argued that the Wall Street bailouts in particular sent a message that companies that take reckless gambles will be rescued by the government. There’s also the concern that the rescues put taxpayer’s dollars at risk.

The public and lawmakers on Capitol Hill were incensed by the repeated taxpayer bailouts of AIG, totaling more than $180 billion, and outraged after the company paid hefty bonuses to employees who worked in the very division that brought down the firm. The $700 billion taxpayer-funded bailout program used to prop up banks, AIG, General Motors, Chrysler and other companies also drew criticism from the public and politicians.

But unlike in the 1930s, Washington policymakers this time acted aggressively and quickly to contain the crisis, said Bernanke, a scholar of the Great Depression.

“As severe as the economic impact has been, however, the outcome could have been decidedly worse,” he said.

Global cooperation in battling the crisis was crucial, with central banks slashing interest rates and the U.S. and other governments delivering fiscal stimulus, he noted.

“The crisis in turn sparked a deep global recession, from which we are only now beginning to emerge,” the Fed chief observed.

Sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the conference draws a virtual who’s who of the financial world — Bernanke’s counterparts in other countries, academics and economists. This year’s forum focused on lessons learned from the crisis and how they can be applied to prevent a repeat of the debacles.

To that end, Bernanke again called a rewrite of the U.S. financial rule book — something Congress is currently involved in. He again pressed for stricter oversight of companies — like AIG — whose failure would endanger the entire financial system and the broader economy. Obama would tap the Fed for that job, something many lawmakers in Congress don’t like.

Bernanke also said the U.S. needs a process to wind down big, globally interconnected companies, much like the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. does for failing banks.

“Looking forward, we must urgently address structural weaknesses in the financial system, in particular in the regulatory framework, to ensure that the enormous costs of the past two years will not be borne again,” he said.

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Ben-Bernanke-MoneyFederal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke ran into skepticism Tuesday from U.S. lawmakers wary of expanding the Fed’s duties to police big financial companies. They argued that the Fed failed to spot problems that led to the financial crisis in the first place.

“The Fed has made some big mistakes,” said the House panel’s highest-ranking Republican, Spencer Bachus.

An Obama administration proposal to make the Fed the supercop of globally interconnected financial companies would be “just inviting a false sense of security that inevitably will be shattered at the expense of the taxpayer,” Bachus warned.

Bernanke countered that the administration’s proposal would be a “modest reorientation” of the Fed’s powers, not a great expansion of them.

The Fed boss sought to assure investors and Congress that the central bank will be able to reel in its extraordinary economic stimulus and prevent a flare up of inflation once a recovery is firmly rooted. Still, any such steps will be far off in the future. The central bank’s focus remains “fostering economic recovery,” he said.

Bernanke also worked to beat back an administration proposal to create a new consumer protection regulator for financial services and strip some of those duties from the central bank. The House panel delayed a committee vote on that legislation until September.

Consumer groups and lawmakers have blamed the Fed for failing to crack down early on dubious mortgages practices that fed the housing boom and figured into its collapse. Later this week, the Fed will issue a proposal to boost disclosures on mortgages and home equity lines of credit. It also will include new rules governing the compensation of mortgage originators.

Bernanke also argued against congressional proposals to let the Government Accountability Office, Congress’ investigative arm, audit the central bank. He feared that audits that delve into the Fed’s interest-rate decisions could compromise its independence in setting interest-rate policies.

“A perceived loss of monetary policy independence could raise fears about future inflation,” he warned.

Rep. Ron Paul, a Reopublican and a frequent Fed critic, rejected that argument and said the Fed already makes political calculations.

“Just the fact that (the Fed) can issue a lot of loans and special privileges to banks and corporations,” Paul said. “That’s political.”

Rep. Bill Posey, a Republican, who wants the Fed to be more open, argued that some people rightly say “you can find out more about the operations of the CIA, than the Fed. The public has the right to know.”

Bernanke’s term expires early next year, and President Barack Obama will have to decide whether to reappoint him. The Fed chief’s innovative policies have been credited with pulling the economy from the edge of the abyss last year.

But those actions also have touched off criticism about putting taxpayers at risk and whether the government should be cleaning up Wall Street messes.

Bernanke again pledged to keep its key bank lending rate at a record low near zero for an “extended period.” Economists predict rates will stay at record lows through the rest of this year.

Laying out a plan now to unwind the Fed’s stimulus could give Bernanke more leeway to hold rates at record lows to brace the economy. It could ease investors’ fears that the Fed’s aggressive steps to end the longest recession since World War II could spur inflation later on.

“It is important to assure the public and the markets that the extraordinary policy measures we have taken in response to the financial crisis and the recession can be withdrawn in a smooth and timely manner as needed, thereby avoiding the risk that policy stimulus could lead to a future rise in inflation,” Bernanke said. “We are confident that we have the necessary tools to implement that strategy when appropriate.”

But House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank, a Democrat, said it is important that the Fed not take those actions “prematurely” and snuff out a recovery.

Nigel Gault, economist at IHS Global Insight, said Bernanke wanted to send Congress a clear message: “Our monetary exit strategy is ready. Don’t try to interfere with it.”

On Wall Street, bond investors took comfort in Bernanke’s remarks, pushing up Treasury prices for a second straight day. The Dow Jones industrial average gained nearly 68 points to 8,915.94, the seventh straight advance for the blue chips. Broader indices also finished higher.

To revive the economy, the Fed has plowed trillions into the financial system in an effort to drive down rates on mortgages and other consumer debt. It also has created programs to bust through credit clogs, a key ingredient in turning the economy around.

Eventually, the Fed will need to soak up that money.

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financeSectorThe federal government has devoted $4.7 trillion to help the financial sector through its crisis, a level of assistance equal to about one-third of the overall U.S. economy, a watchdog report said Monday.

Under the worst of circumstances, the report said, the government’s maximum exposure could total nearly $24 trillion, or $80,000 for every American.

The figures are part of a tough new quarterly report to Congress from special inspector general Neil Barofsky, who accuses the Treasury Department of repeatedly failing to adopt recommendations aimed at making one component of the government financial rescue effort more accountable and transparent.

The $4.7 trillion commitment to the industry takes into account about 50 initiatives and programs set up since 2007 by the Bush and Obama administrations as well as by the Federal Reserve. Barofsky oversees one of the initiatives — the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program.

Much of the government assistance is backed by collateral and Barofsky’s $23.7 trillion estimate represents the gross, not net, exposure that the government could face.

Because of declining participation in short-term loan programs and because some infusions of money have been repaid, the maximum amount actually spent has declined to a current outstanding balance of $3 trillion, Barofsky said.

Treasury spokesman Andrew Williams said the actual cash outlay to date of all the programs cited by Barofsky is actually less than $2 trillion and said the maximum exposure estimate “is inflated in a number of ways.”

The agencies and the programs assisting the financial sector include a newly created Federal Housing Finance Agency, increased deposit insurance initiated by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., and 18 support programs created by the Fed under the special powers it can deploy to address a systemwide financial crisis.

Banks have cut back on their use of the Fed’s emergency lending program as well as other programs to ease credit stresses. Given that, the Fed has reduced the amount it will lend to financial institutions under two programs and it has decided to let a program to support money market mutual funds to expire as currently scheduled at the end of October.

Barofsky’s $23.7 trillion estimate represents the maximum exposure that the government would face if all eligible applicants requested the maximum assistance at the same time. It does not account for the fees and other costs that some of these programs charge and for the collateral that many of the programs require that participants provide.

For instance, Barofsky assigns $6.8 trillion in potential exposure to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees mortgage giants Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the 12 federal home loan banks. However, losses of that magnitude would require every homeowner with a Fannie or Freddie guaranteed mortgage to default and the value of the homes drop to zero. And Barofsky concedes that the finance agency and Treasury are not entirely liable for Fannie and Freddie losses.

The total also includes $3.35 trillion for a Treasury program, announced in September, to back money market mutual funds. But the Treasury has capped its liability for that program at $50 billion.

“While quantity and quality of the assets backing all of these programs vary, ignoring that side of these programs misrepresents ‘potential exposure’ associated with them,” Treasury’s Williams said.

In his report, Barofsky says Treasury has accepted some of his recommendations for greater accountability, but says the department has not taken steps to require all TARP recipients to report on their actual use of funds. He said Treasury also should report the values of its investments in banks and other financial institutions, disclose the identity of borrowers under a nonrecourse loan program and disclose trading activity under a public-private investment fund.

Barofsky says Treasury’s inaction means taxpayers have not been told what the financial institutions that have received assistance are doing with the money.

Rep. Darrell Issa of California, the top Republican in the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, said that by not adopting Barofsky’s recommendation, Treasury is contradicting President Barack Obama‘s vows to increase government accountability.

“I don’t know how you can justify hiding from the American people how their tax dollars are being spent,” Issa said.

Barofsky’s conclusion is contained in a quarterly report to Congress and in testimony he is prepared to give Tuesday to the Oversight and Government Reform Committee.

“The very credibility of TARP (and thus in large measure its chance of success) depends on whether Treasury will commit, in deed as in word, to operate TARP with the highest degree of transparency possible,” Barofsky said.

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